Copeptin and risk stratification in patients with acute dyspnea

Abstract

Introduction: The identification of patients at highest risk for adverse outcome who are presenting with acute dyspnea to the emergency department remains a challenge. This study investigates the prognostic value of Copeptin, the C-terminal part of the vasopressin prohormone alone and combined to N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with acute dyspnea.

Methods: We conducted a prospective, observational cohort study in the emergency department of a university hospital and enrolled 287 patients with acute dyspnea.

Results: Copeptin levels were elevated in non-survivors (n = 29) compared to survivors at 30 days (108 pmol/l, interquartile range (IQR) 37 to 197 pmol/l) vs. 18 pmol/l, IQR 7 to 43 pmol/l; P < 0.0001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to predict 30-day mortality were 0.83 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 0.90), 0.76 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.84) and 0.63 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.74) for Copeptin, NT-proBNP and BNP, respectively (Copeptin vs. NTproBNP P = 0.21; Copeptin vs. BNP P = 0.002). When adjusted for common cardiovascular risk factors and NT-proBNP, Copeptin was the strongest independent predictor for short-term mortality in all patients (HR 3.88 (1.94 to 7.77); P < 0.001) and especially in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) (HR 5.99 (2.55 to 14.07); P < 0.0001). With the inclusion of Copeptin to the adjusted model including NTproBNP, the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was 0.37 (P < 0.001). An additional 30% of those who experienced events were reclassified as high risk, and an additional 26% without events were reclassified as low risk.

Conclusions: Copeptin is a new promising prognostic marker for short-term mortality independently and additive to natriuretic peptide levels in patients with acute dyspnea.

Figure 1

Copeptin levels according to survival in patients with and without acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).

Figure 2

Diagnostic accuracy for for Copeptin, NT-proBNP and BNP to predict 30-day mortality. AUC: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; NT-proBNP: N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide; BNP: B-type natriuretic peptide; ADHF: acute decompensated heart failure

Figure 3

Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrating survival over time according to quartiles of Copeptin at baseline in all patients.

Figure 4

30-day mortality as a function of Copeptin and NT-proBNP concentrations in all patients (a) and in patients with ADHF (b). NT-proBNP: N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide; ADHF: acute decompensated heart failure.