The multinomial model of prospective memory: validity of ongoing-task parameters

Abstract

The objective of this research was to provide additional experimental validation of the multinomial processing tree (MPT) model of event-based prospective memory (Smith & Bayen, 2004). In particular, the parameters that measure trial-type detection in the ongoing task were examined. In three experiments with different response instructions, event-based prospective memory tasks were embedded in ongoing color-matching tasks. The results support the validity of the MPT model, that is, manipulations of ongoing-task difficulty affected the ongoing-task parameters of the MPT model, while leaving the estimates for the prospective and the retrospective components of prospective memory unaffected.

Figure 1

The multinomial processing tree model of event-based prospective memory for three responses. PM = prospective memory; C₁ = probability of detecting a color match; C₂ = probability of detecting that a color does not match; P = prospective component; M₁ = probability of detecting a PM target; M₂ = probability of detecting that a word is not a PM target; g = probability of guessing that a word is a target; c = probability of guessing that the color matches. Adapted from “A multinomial model of event-based prospective memory” by R. E. Smith and U. J. Bayen, 2004, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, p. 758. Copyright 2004 by the American Psychological Association. Adapted with permission.