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. 2011 Jun;34(3):225-35.
doi: 10.1007/s10865-010-9303-7. Epub 2010 Nov 26.

Correlates of unrealistic risk beliefs in a nationally representative sample

Erika A Waters  1 , William M P Klein, Richard P Moser, Mandi Yu, William R Waldron, Timothy S McNeel, Andrew N Freedman
Affiliations

Correlates of unrealistic risk beliefs in a nationally representative sample

Erika A Waters et al. J Behav Med. 2011 Jun.

Abstract

Unrealistically optimistic or pessimistic risk perceptions may be associated with maladaptive health behaviors. This study characterized factors associated with unrealistic optimism (UO) and unrealistic pessimism (UP) about breast cancer. Data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey were analyzed (N = 14,426 women). After accounting for objective risk status, many (43.8%) women displayed UO, 12.3% displayed UP, 34.5% had accurate risk perceptions (their perceived risk matched their calculated risk), and 9.5% indicated "don't know/no response." Multivariate multinomial logistic regression indicated that UO was associated with higher education and never smoking. UP was associated with lower education, lower income, being non-Hispanic Black, having ≥3 comorbidities, current smoking, and being overweight. UO was more likely to emerge in younger and older than in middle-aged individuals. UO and UP are associated with different demographic, health, and behavioral characteristics. Population segments that are already vulnerable to negative health outcomes displayed more UP than less vulnerable populations.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-stratified differences in breast cancer risk beliefs. Percentages based on predicted marginals, adjusted for all variables in model. Error bars describe the 99% confidence intervals. Quadratic relationship between age and UP is nonsignificant after the sequential Bonferroni correction, pcritical = .005. UO=unrealistic optimism, UP=unrealistic pessimism, DK=don’t know/nonresponse.
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