From outbreak detection to anticipation

Abstract

Background: Bioterrorist threats and the emergence of new infectious pathogens force structures and means dedicated to outbreaks detection to evolve. Obtaining early information is becoming a major stake. Development of early warning system and new epidemiological tools open new perspectives in real time management of outbreaks.

Methods: Through several examples, this overview presents a synthesis and reports the recent multidisciplinary evolutions, which occurred in the field of outbreak detection and information useful for outbreaks anticipation.

Conclusion: Outbreak detection is a multidisciplinary activity which relies on many protean epidemiologic sensors. Detection should not be perceived as a finality, but as a crucial step of a broader process in outbreak management (detection, alarm, alert, acceptability, implementation of countermeasures or not). That is why the evaluation of a monitoring system should not be limited to only its ability to detect an aberration. Today, progress in biology, modeling, remote sensing and environmental detection allow model development with anticipation aiming.