Risk stratification for distal pancreatectomy utilizing ACS-NSQIP: preoperative factors predict morbidity and mortality

Abstract

Background: Evaluation of risk factors for adverse outcomes following distal pancreatectomy (DP) has been limited to data collected from retrospective, primarily single-institution studies. Using a large, multi-institutional prospectively collected dataset, we sought to define the incidence of complications after DP, identify the preoperative and operative risk factors for the development of complications, and develop a risk score that can be utilized preoperatively.

Methods: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program participant use file was utilized to identify patients who underwent DP from 2005 to 2008 by Current Procedural Terminology codes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify variables associated with 30-day morbidity and mortality. A scoring system was developed to allow for preoperative risk stratification.

Results: In 2,322 patients who underwent DP, overall 30-day complication and mortality were 28.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Serious complication occurred in 22.2%, and the most common complications included sepsis (8.7%), surgical site infection (5.9%), and pneumonia (4.7%). On multivariate analysis, preoperative variables associated with morbidity included male gender, high BMI, smoking, steroid use, neurologic disease, preoperative SIRS/sepsis, hypoalbuminemia, elevated creatinine, and abnormal platelet count. Preoperative variables associated with 30-day mortality included esophageal varices, neurologic disease, dependent functional status, recent weight loss, elevated alkaline phosphatase, and elevated blood urea nitrogen. Operative variables associated with both morbidity and mortality included high intraoperative transfusion requirement (≥3 U) and prolonged operation time (>360 min). Weighted risk scores were created based on the preoperatively determined factors that predicted both morbidity (p < 0.001) and mortality (p < 0.001) after DP.

Discussion: The rate of serious complication after DP is 22%. The DP-specific preoperative risk scoring system described in this paper may be utilized for patient counseling and informed consent discussions, identifying high-risk patients who would benefit from disease optimization, and risk adjustment when comparing outcomes between institutions.