Projected incidence of proximal femoral fracture in England: a report from the NHS Hip Fracture Anaesthesia Network (HIPFAN)

Abstract

Aims: This study was designed to estimate trends in the number of proximal femoral fractures (PFFs), and consequent bed day requirements and financial implications for England until 2033.

Methods: Trends in the number of coded PFFs from 1998 to 2008 (collected from Hospital Episode Statistics Online) were projected forward to 2033, and modified according to published data concerning population demographics and declining PFF prevalence. Estimates of 30 day postoperative mortality were calculated according to projected demographic data. Financial estimates were calculated according to current cost and adjusted according to projected inflation.

Results: Despite a decline in the prevalence of PFF among the aging population (2.98% since 2002), we estimate that approximately 100,000 patients annually will require surgery for fractured neck of femur by 2033 in England, with a 30d mortality of 8.9-9.3%, costing £3.6-5.6 billion (inflation adjusted) in total care.

Conclusions: The evaluation and implementation of cost-effective preventive and therapeutic strategies in the short term may help to ameliorate the future financial burden of PFF, and, more importantly, improve the outcome and quality of life for the elderly after fracture.