Field experience in estimating population growth

Abstract

This paper reports on some of the aspects of implementing the population estimation studies now being carried out-the Population Growth Estimation Study (PGE) in Pakistan, the Survey of Population Change (SPC) in Thailand, and the Demographic Survey in Turkey (TDS). The basic purpose of all these surveys is to provide reliable estimates of population growth rates for various areas within each of the countries.All the surveys under consideration are single-purpose, continuing, nation-wide studies, using fixed, area samples. The basic methodology of the studies is similar in that they aü utilize the technique of collecting data on births and deaths by two separate systems and then comparing individual events to determine whether events were recorded by both systems or only one. One list is based on periodic enumerations and the other on continuous registration.Some of the problems encountered in the various phases of the field work required to assemble the two independent lists-such as identification of enumeration units, the de facto approach vs. the de jure approach, assuring completeness of registration, and reconciliation of unmatched cases-are described and the steps taken toward their solution outlined.The author concludes that the studies are on sound methodological grounds but that their implementation, especially in developing countries, poses additional burdens.