Population and Mortality after AIDS

Excerpt

The acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) affects population size and composition in several ways. In particular age groups, deaths increase directly from AIDS and may also increase indirectly, as orphans, for instance, face higher mortality risks. Fertility can be affected, not only biologically but also from changes in sexual behavior. Communities may be weakened, and migration may alter the geographic distribution of the population.

This chapter draws on the work of agencies that produce global population projections to discuss the overall population effect of AIDS in Sub-Saharan African countries. It does not attempt to elucidate all the mechanisms involved—each of which deserves separate attention. Instead, the chapter focuses on the broad demographic impact. Decades after the start of the epidemics, estimates of this impact generally ignore all subtle and indirect effects and cover only the additional mortality directly from AIDS. Even this impact is highly uncertain. There is general agreement on substantial impact but no consensus on how substantial and long lasting it is.