Hindsight bias from 3 to 95 years of age

Abstract

Upon learning the outcome to a problem, people tend to believe that they knew it all along (hindsight bias). Here, we report the first study to trace the development of hindsight bias across the life span. One hundred ninety-four participants aged 3 to 95 years completed 3 tasks designed to measure visual and verbal hindsight bias. All age groups demonstrated hindsight bias on all 3 tasks; however, preschoolers and older adults exhibited more bias than older children and younger adults. Multinomial processing tree analyses of these data revealed that preschoolers' enhanced hindsight bias resulted from them substituting the correct answer for their original answer in their recall (a qualitative error). Conversely, older adults' enhanced hindsight bias resulted from them forgetting their original answer and recalling an answer closer to, but not equal to, the correct answer (a quantitative error). We discuss these findings in relation to mechanisms of memory, perspective taking, theory of mind, and executive function.

Figure 1

A sketch of the HB13 model for analyzing verbal hindsight bias data. Parameters r_C and r_E denote the probabilities of OJ recollection in the control condition and the experimental condition, respectively. Parameter b is the probability of biased OJ reconstruction given recollection failure. Parameter c is the probability of a source memory confusion in which ROJ = CJ. Rectangles signify observable events; ovals signify unobservable cognitive processes. Parameters denote transition probabilities between processes from left to right. OJ = original judgment; ROJ = recall of original judgment; CJ = correct judgment; ~ = is close to. Adapted from “Recollection Biases in Hindsight Judgments,” by E. Erdfelder, M. Brandt, and A. Bröder, 2007, Social Cognition, 25, p. 117. Copyright 2007 by Guilford Publications. For the full version of the HB13 model, see Erdfelder and Buchner (1998, p. 392.

Figure 2

An illustration of the VHB3 model for analyzing visual hindsight bias data. FJ = foresight judgment; HJ = hindsight judgment. Parameter r’ denotes the probability of recalling one’s foresight judgment and using it as one’s hindsight judgment. Parameter b’ denotes the probability of a biased reconstruction given recollection failure. Parameter c’ denotes the probability of confusing outcome knowledge with foresight knowledge given recollection failure.

Figure 3

Example of computer hindsight task. In the foresight judgment condition, participants try to identify the object as it clarifies on a computer screen. In the hindsight judgment condition, participants see the object in advance of estimating when a naïve, same-age peer will identify the object.

Figure 4

Magnitude of hindsight bias as a function of age groups. Panel A depicts Pohl’s Δz index (described in detail in text), for the verbal hindsight task. Panel B depicts the mean difference in effective distance, feet, at identification, between hindsight and foresight judgments in the computer hindsight task. Panel C depicts the mean difference in filter screen number between hindsight and foresight identifications in the real object hindsight task. Error bars show Standard Errors.