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Comparative Study
. 2011 Feb 2;6(2):e16511.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016511.

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Yuming Guo  1 , Adrian G Barnett, Weiwei Yu, Xiaochuan Pan, Xiaofang Ye, Cunrui Huang, Shilu Tong
Affiliations
Comparative Study

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Yuming Guo et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.

Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987-2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean.

Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65-74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥ 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.

Conclusion: A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. The associations between temperature change and non-external mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and respiratory mortality using model (1) in Brisbane, Australia (left side) and Los Angeles, United States (right side).
Figure 2
Figure 2. The associations between temperature change and non-external mortality by age group using model (1) in Brisbane, Australia (left side) and Los Angeles (right side), United States.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Bivariate response surfaces of the temperature change and mean temperature for non-external mortality, subgroups of mortality using model (3) in Brisbane, Australia.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Bivariate response surfaces of the temperature change and mean temperature for non-external mortality, subgroups of mortality using model (3) in Los Angeles, United States.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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