Geographic distribution modelling for ruminant liver flukes (Fasciola hepatica) in south-eastern Europe

Abstract

Maximum entropy ecological niche modelling was utilised to predict the geographic range for fluke genotypes and haplotypes in south-eastern Europe, using the Maxent program. The lowest (0.832) and the highest (0.947) area under the curve values were observed in the models for the haplotypes CtCmt1 and CtCmt2.2, respectively. Precipitation and temperature contribute equally to model building of the genotypes based on the 28S rDNA gene. In regard to the mtDNA gene region, precipitation is the most important factor in modelling the CtCmt1 haplotype range, while temperature appears to be the most important factor in modelling the CtCmt2.1 and CtCmt2.2 haplotype ranges. The highest level of probability for the geographic distribution of Fasciola hepatica genotypes and haplotypes covered the regions of southern Bulgaria and central and northern Greece which contain a high concentration of potential ruminant hosts.