Scaling up towards international targets for AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria: contribution of global fund-supported programs in 2011-2015

Abstract

Objective: The paper projects the contribution to 2011-2015 international targets of three major pandemics by programs in 140 countries funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the largest external financier of tuberculosis and malaria programs and a major external funder of HIV programs in low and middle income countries.

Design: Estimates, using past trends, for the period 2011-2015 of the number of persons receiving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment, tuberculosis case detection using the internationally approved DOTS strategy, and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to be delivered by programs in low and middle income countries supported by the Global Fund compared to international targets established by UNAIDS, Stop TB Partnership, Roll Back Malaria Partnership and the World Health Organisation.

Results: Global Fund-supported programs are projected to provide ARV treatment to 5.5-5.8 million people, providing 30%-31% of the 2015 international target. Investments in tuberculosis and malaria control will enable reaching in 2015 60%-63% of the international target for tuberculosis case detection and 30%-35% of the ITN distribution target in sub-Saharan Africa.

Conclusion: Global Fund investments will substantially contribute to the achievement by 2015 of international targets for HIV, TB and malaria. However, additional large scale international and domestic financing is needed if these targets are to be reached by 2015.

Figure 1. Results and projected targets of ARV treatment by Global Fund-supported programs, 2005 to 2015.

Increase in number of people provided with ARV treatment through Global Fund-supported program will be slower than the increase in the need, resulting in a slight decline in their contribution to the international target.

Figure 2. Cumulative results and projected targets of detection and treatment of new smear-positive TB cases by Global Fund-supported programs, 2005 to 2015.

With the increase in number of TB cases detected and treated through Global Fund-supported programs, these programs are expected to contribute to 60%–63% of the international target.

Figure 3. Results and projected targets of ITN distribution by Global Fund-supported programs, 2005 to 2015.

Global Fund-supported programs are expected to distribute 290–340 million ITNs between 2003 and 2015.

Figure 4. Unexpired ITNs distributed by Global Fund-supported programs in sub-Saharan Africa, 2005 to 2015.

In 2010 Global Fund-supported programs have provided over 80% of the international target of ITNs of sub-Saharan Africa. This contribution will reduce to 30%–35% in 2015 with the expansion of the targeted population to all people in risk areas (rather than targeting only pregnant women children under the age of five), and the expiring of ITNs older than 4 years. ITNs to be distributed in 2010 will expire by 2014, and because less ITNs projected to be distributed in 2014 compared to 2010, a decrease is expected between 2013 and 2014.