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Comparative Study
. 2010 Dec 15;74(10):189.
doi: 10.5688/aj7410189.

The pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to explain changing pharmacist demand over a ten-year period

Katherine K Knapp  1 , Bijal M Shah, Mitchell J Barnett
Affiliations
Comparative Study

The pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to explain changing pharmacist demand over a ten-year period

Katherine K Knapp et al. Am J Pharm Educ. .

Abstract

Objectives: To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI.

Methods: Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables).

Results: ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment (p < 0.001), then graduates (p < 0.006), then prescription growth rate (p < 0.093). A hierarchical model with the 3 variables was significant (p = 0.019), but only unemployment was a significant ADI predictor. Unemployment and ADI also were significantly related at the regional, division, and state levels.

Conclusions: The ADI is strongly linked to US unemployment rates. The relationship suggests that an improving economy might coincide with increased pharmacist demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.

Keywords: Aggregate Demand Index; employment; pharmacist shortage; pharmacy graduates; prescription drug growth; unemployment; workforce.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Mean Annual National ADI: 1999-2010. Range shown is from “3” = balance between supply and demand to “5” = difficult to fill open positions.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The ADI and US unemployment rates are compared from 1999 to 2010 (r = 0.923). Partial data were available for 1999 and 2010. This chart uses an “inverse” ADI (described in the text) to better visualize the relationship.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The ADI and entry-level pharmacy graduates are compared from 1999 to 2010 (r = 0.76). Partial ADI data were available for 1999 and graduates are estimated for 2010 based on AACP data. This chart uses an “inverse” ADI (described in the text) to better visualize the relationship.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The ADI and US retail prescriptions in millions are compared from 1999 to 2009 (r = 0.54). Partial ADI data were available for 1999.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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