Policy and science implications of the framing and qualities of uncertainty in risks: toxic and beneficial fish from the Baltic Sea

Abstract

Policy and research issues in the framing and qualities of uncertainties in risks are analyzed, based on the assessments of dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) and other ingredients in Baltic Sea fish, a high-profile case of governance. Risks are framed broadly, to then focus on dioxins and beneficial fatty acids, fish consumption, human health, and science-management links. Hierarchies of uncertainty (data, model, decision rule, and epistemic) and ambiguity (of values) are used to identify issues of scientific and policy contestation and opportunities for resolving them. The associated complexity of risks is illustrated by risk-benefit analyses of fish consumption and by evaluations of guideline values, highlighting value contents and policy factors in presumably scientific decision criteria, and arguments used in multi-dimensional risk and benefit comparisons. These comparisons pose challenges to narrow assessments centered, for e.g., on toxicants or on food benefits, and to more many-sided and balanced risk communication and management. It is shown that structured and contextualized treatment of uncertainties and ambiguities in a reflexive approach can inform balances between wide and narrow focus, detail and generality, and evidence and precaution.

Fig. 1

Focusing assessment within key dimensions of risks associated with dioxins and beneficial ingredients in Baltic Sea fish (modified from Assmuth and Jalonen 2005). Note the key shifts in focus of the present article, indicated by arrows; a shift toward management impacts in particular may entail reframing also of exposure media (including additional sources) and receptor organisms. WHO-TEq = TCDD toxicity equivalent quantities defined by WHO (1998) using mammalian toxicity equivalency factors; PUFAs polyunsaturated fatty acids

Fig. 2

Due to their health benefits, omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids are increasingly supplemented in dietary fats. However, balancing is also required between different dietary items including various types of fish, between their beneficial and harmful ingredients, between alternative intervention measures—and between uncertainties of these. (Photo: Timo Assmuth)

Fig. 3

Simplified risk/benefit based process of deriving quantitative human health management criteria for dioxins and PUFAs (polyunsaturated fatty acids) in fish (modified from Assmuth and Jalonen 2005), emphasizing multi-level influencing factors and uncertainties. Note that the different levels and types of uncertainty overlap. Those factors and criteria related only to PBTs have been shown by hatched lines. RR risk ratio (in epidemiological studies), DALYs disability-adjusted life years, TDI tolerable daily intake; ADI advisable daily intake

Fig. 4

The silver of the Baltic, herring. The concentrations of fat-soluble toxic substances have a strong positive correlation with the size and thus the age of the fish. Also the use of herring for human consumption is related to fish size, due partly to technical requirements for filleting. (Photo: courtesy of Finnish Environment Institute)