Prognostic indicators and outcome prediction model for patients with return of spontaneous circulation from cardiopulmonary arrest: the Utstein Osaka Project

Abstract

Objective: To determine the most important indicators of prognosis in patients with return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) following out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest (OHCA) and to develop a best outcome prediction model.

Design and patients: All patients were prospectively recorded based on the Utstein Style in Osaka over a period of 3 years (2005-2007). Criteria for inclusion were a witnessed cardiac arrest, age greater than 17 years, presumed cardiac origin of the arrest, and successful ROSC. Multivariate logistic regression (MLR) analysis was used to develop the best prediction model. The dependent variables were favourable outcome (cerebral-performance category [CPC]: 1-2) and poor outcome (CPC: 3-5) at 1 month after the event. Eight explanatory pre-hospital variables were used concerning patient characteristics and resuscitation. External validation was performed on an independent set of Utstein data in 2007.

Results: Subjects comprised 285 patients in VF and 577 patients with pulseless electrical activity (PEA)/asystole. The percentage of favourable outcomes was 31.9% (91/285) in VF and 5.7% (33/577) in PEA/asystole. The most important prognostic indicators of favourable outcome found by MLR were age (p=0.10), time from collapse to ROSC (TROSC) (p<0.01), and presence of pre-hospital ROSC (PROSC) (p=0.15) for VF and age (p=0.03), TROSC (p<0.01), PROSC (p<0.01), and conversion to VF (p=0.01) for PEA/asystole. For external validation data, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 0.867 for VF and 0.873 for PEA/asystole.

Conclusions: A model based on four selected indicators showed a high predictive value for favourable outcome in OHCA patients with ROSC.