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. 2011 Mar;43(1):12-8.
doi: 10.4143/crt.2011.43.1.12. Epub 2011 Mar 31.

Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea, 2011

Kyu-Won Jung  1 , Sohee Park, Young-Joo Won, Hyun-Joo Kong, Joo Young Lee, Eun-Cheol Park, Jin-Soo Lee
Affiliations

Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea, 2011

Kyu-Won Jung et al. Cancer Res Treat. 2011 Mar.

Abstract

Purpose: To estimate the current cancer burden in Korea, cancer incidence and mortality were projected for the year 2011.

Materials and methods: The cancer incidence data from 1999-2008 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and the cancer mortality data from 1993-2009 were obtained from the Korea National Statistics Office. Cancer incident cases and rates in 2011 were projected from fitting a linear regression model on observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was applied for projection except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend significantly changed.

Results: A total of 216,809 new cancer cases and 71,036 cancer deaths are projected to occur in Korea in 2011. For all sites combined, the crude incidence rates are projected to be 437.9 and 420.5 and the age-standardized incidence rates are projected to be 336.5 and 279.7 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively.

Conclusion: Cancer has become an important public health concern in Korea, and as Korea becomes an aged society, the cancer burden will continue to increase.

Keywords: 2011; Incidence; Korea; Mortality; Neoplasms; Prediction.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Ten leading cancer types for the estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2011. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Age-specific cancer incidence rates of major cancers during 2011 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Age-specific cancer mortality rates of major cancers during 2011 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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