Out of sync? Demographic and other social science research on health conditions in developing countries

Abstract

In this paper, we present a framework for considering whether the marginal social benefits of demographic and social science research on various health conditions in developing countries are likely to be relatively high. Based on this framework, we argue that the relative current and future predicted prevalence of burdens of different health/disease conditions, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), provide a fairly accurate reflection of some important factors related to the relative marginal social benefits of demographic and social science research on different health conditions. World Health Organization (WHO) DALYs projections for 2005-30 are compared with (a) demographic and other social science studies on health in developing countries during 1990-2005, and (b) presentations made at the Population Association of America annual meetings during the same time period. These comparisons suggest that recent demographic and social science research on health in developing countries has focused too much on HIV/AIDS, and too little on non-communicable diseases.

Figure 1

Marginal social benefits of social science research on any health condition (MSB) and marginal social costs for social science research on any health condition (MSC)

Chart 1A

Studies on health in developing countries, 1990–2005

Chart 1B

PAA presentations related to health in developing countries, 1990–2005

Chart 1C

Average annual exponential growth rates between 1990–2 and 2003–5 in studies and PAA presentations related to health and development

Chart 2A

Average annual exponential growth rates for 1990–2 to 2003–5 in studies by three major GBD/WHO categories

Chart 2B

Average annual exponential growth rates from 1990–2 to 2003–5 in PAA presentations by three major GBD/WHO categories

Chart 3A

Composition of studies for 1990–2005 by three major GBD/WHO categories

Chart 3B

Composition of studies for 2003–5 by three major GBD/WHO categories

Chart 3C

Composition of PAA presentations for 1990–2005 by three major GBD/WHO categories

Chart 3D

Composition of PAA presentations for 2003–5 by three major GBD/WHO categories

Chart 4A

Average exponential growth rates in studies between 1990–2 and 2003–5 for three major GBD/WHO categories with HIV/AIDS separate

Chart 4B

Average annual exponential growth rates in PAA presentations between 1990–2 and 2003–5 for three major GBD/WHO categories with HIV/AIDS separate

Chart 5A

Distribution of studies in 1990–2005 for three major GBD/WHO categories, with HIV/AIDS separate

Chart 5B

Distribution of studies in 2003–5 for three major GBD/WHO categories, with HIV/AIDS separate

Chart 5C

Distribution of PAA presentations in 1990–2005 for three major GBD/WHO categories with HIV/AIDS separate

Chart 5D

Distribution of PAA presentations in 2003–5 for three major GBD/WHO categories, with HIV/AIDS separate

Chart 6A

% composition of DALYs projected for three major GBD/WHO categories for all developing countries CMPNC NCD Injuries

Chart 6B

% composition of DALYs projected for three major GBD/WHO categories for low-income developing countries

Chart 7A

% ratio of share in studies in 2003–5 to share in DALYs for 2005 for three major GBD/WHO categories, with HIV/AIDS separate (100% = average)

Chart 7B

% ratio of share in studies in 1990–2005 to share in DALYs for 2030 for three major GBD/WHO categories, with HIV/AIDS separate (100% = average)

Chart 7C

% ratio of share of PAA presentations in 2003–5 to share in DALYs for 2030 for three major GBD/WHO categories, with HIV/AIDS separate (100% = average)

Chart 7D

% ratio of share of PAA presentations in 1990–2005 to share in DALYs for 2030 for three major GBD/WHO categories, with HIV/AIDS separate (100% = average)