A unifying framework for assessing changes in life expectancy associated with changes in mortality: the case of violent deaths

Abstract

For over forty years, demographers have worked intensely to develop methods that assess a gain in life expectancy from a reduction in mortality, either hypothetical or observed. This considerable body of research was motivated by assessing the gains in life expectancy when mortality declined in a particular manner and determining the contribution of a cause of death in observed changes in life expectancy over time. As yet, there has been no framework unifying this important demographic work. In this paper, we provide a unifying framework for assessing the change in life expectancy given a change in age- and cause-specific mortality. We consider both conceptualizations of mortality change-counterfactual assessment of a hypothetical change and a retrospective assessment of an observed change. We apply our methodology to violent deaths, the leading cause of death among young adults, and show that realistic targeted reductions could have important impacts on life expectancy.

Figure 1

Age Profiles of U.S. Male and Female Motor Vehicle Accident, Homicide, and Suicide Mortality Rates: 1970, 2005, Case 1, and Case 2. Note: The age profile is shown as a grey line for 1970, black line for 2005, dashed line for Case 1, and dotted line for Case 2. Source: Mortality Detail Files, 1968–2005 and Human Mortality Database.