Ageing with HIV in South Africa

Abstract

We used an established microsimulation model, quantified to a rural South African setting with a well developed antiretroviral treatment programme, to predict the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the HIV epidemic in the population aged over 50 years. We show that the HIV prevalence in patients aged over 50 years will nearly double in the next 30 years, whereas the fraction of HIV-infected patients aged over 50 years will triple in the same period. This ageing epidemic has important consequences for the South African healthcare system, as older HIV patients require specialized care.

Figure 1. HIV prevalence (in the 15-49 and 50+ age groups), total number of infections, and age distribution of HIV infected patients over the period 2000-2040 in the Hlabisa sub-district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, predicted with the STDSIM model

A = HIV prevalence in those aged 15-49 and 50+ years. Data points from HIV surveillance in Hlabisa [5, 7], B = Absolute number of HIV infections among the population aged 50+ in the Hlabisa sub-district (total population size approximately 280,000 in 2009), C = Age distribution of HIV infected men and women in 2010, 2025 and 2040.