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. 2011 Jun 22:342:d3651.
doi: 10.1136/bmj.d3651.

Predicting risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in the United Kingdom: prospective independent and external validation of QFractureScores

Gary S Collins  1 , Susan Mallett, Douglas G Altman
Affiliations

Predicting risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in the United Kingdom: prospective independent and external validation of QFractureScores

Gary S Collins et al. BMJ. .

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the performance of the QFractureScores for predicting the 10 year risk of osteoporotic and hip fractures in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice records.

Design: Prospective cohort study.

Setting: 364 UK general practices contributing to The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database.

Participants: 2.2 million adults registered with a general practice between 27 June 1994 and 30 June 2008, aged 30-85 (13 million person years), with 25,208 osteoporotic fractures and 12,188 hip fractures.

Main outcome measures: First (incident) diagnosis of osteoporotic fracture (vertebra, distal radius, or hip) and incident hip fracture recorded in general practice records.

Results: Results from this independent and external validation of QFractureScores indicated good performance data for both osteoporotic and hip fracture end points. Discrimination and calibration statistics were comparable to those reported in the internal validation of QFractureScores. The hip fracture score had better performance data for both women and men. It explained 63% of the variation in women and 60% of the variation in men, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 and 0.86, respectively. The risk score for osteoporotic fracture explained 49% of the variation in women and 38% of the variation in men, with corresponding areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 and 0.74. QFractureScores were well calibrated, with predicted risks closely matching those across all 10ths of risk and for all age groups.

Conclusion: QFractureScores are useful tools for predicting the 10 year risk of osteoporotic and hip fractures in patients in the United Kingdom.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and declare: no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.

Figures

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Fig 1 Observed versus predicted fracture risks for women. THIN=The Health Improvement Network
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Fig 2 Observed versus predicted fracture risks for men. THIN=The Health Improvement Network
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Fig 3 Observed and predicted fracture risk by age group and sex
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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