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. 2011 Jul 12;108(28):11361-4.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1108138108. Epub 2011 Jun 23.

Natural time analysis of critical phenomena

Affiliations

Natural time analysis of critical phenomena

Panayiotis Varotsos et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

A quantity exists by which one can identify the approach of a dynamical system to the state of criticality, which is hard to identify otherwise. This quantity is the variance κ(1)(≡<χ(2)> - <χ>(2)) of natural time χ, where <f(χ)> = Σp(k)f(χ(k)) and p(k) is the normalized energy released during the kth event of which the natural time is defined as χ(k) = k/N and N stands for the total number of events. Then we show that κ(1) becomes equal to 0.070 at the critical state for a variety of dynamical systems. This holds for criticality models such as 2D Ising and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile, which is the standard example of self-organized criticality. This condition of κ(1) = 0.070 holds for experimental results of critical phenomena such as growth of rice piles, seismic electric signals, and the subsequent seismicity before the associated main shock.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
The values of κ1 as a function of dynamic critical exponent z. Various dynamical universality classes are depicted according to their dynamic critical exponent values (see tables IV, VII, IX, and XI of ref. 19). Models A and B correspond to nonconserved or conserved order parameter dynamics as defined by Hohenberg and Halperin (33).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
(A) Evolution of formula image as a function of the number k of MCS, after an abrupt quench to close but below Tc, up to k = 104. (B) Log–log plot of A. The broken line corresponding to z = 2.165 (see ref. 20) is drawn as a guide to the eye. (C) The evolution of as a function of κ1 when |Mk| is analyzed in natural time. The average (μ) and the one standard deviation (μ ± σ) values of κ1 are drawn with the thick and thin lines. The results are obtained by 103 runs of the model for various L.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Centrally fed sandpile. The evolution of κ1 versus the number of avalanches for D = 2 to D = 7. The initial condition is zi = 0. The κ1 values fluctuate around κ1 = 0.056, 0.064, 0.069, 0.071, 0.073, and 0.075 for D = 2 to 7, respectively. The value of κ1 = 0.070 is also drawn with the broken horizontal line for the sake of comparison.

References

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    1. Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES. Long-range correlations in the electric signals the precede rupture. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2002;66:011902. - PubMed
    1. Varotsos P, Sarlis N, Skordas ES. Natural Time Analysis: The New View of Time. Berlin: Springer; 2011.
    1. Feller W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications. Vol II. New York: Wiley; 1971.
    1. Varotsos P, Alexopoulos K. Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes, I. Tectonophysics. 1984;110:73–98.

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