Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2011 Sep;124(9):827-33.e5.
doi: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2011.04.010. Epub 2011 Jun 30.

The impact of the aging population on coronary heart disease in the United States

Michelle C Odden  1 , Pamela G Coxson, Andrew Moran, James M Lightwood, Lee Goldman, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo
Affiliations

The impact of the aging population on coronary heart disease in the United States

Michelle C Odden et al. Am J Med. 2011 Sep.

Abstract

Background: The demographic shift toward an older population in the United States will result in a higher burden of coronary heart disease, but the increase has not been quantified in detail. We sought to estimate the impact of the aging US population on coronary heart disease.

Methods: We used the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model, a Markov model of the US population between 35 and 84 years of age, and US Census projections to model the age structure of the population between 2010 and 2040.

Results: Assuming no substantive changes in risks factors or treatments, incident coronary heart disease is projected to increase by approximately 26%, from 981,000 in 2010 to 1,234,000 in 2040, and prevalent coronary heart disease by 47%, from 11.7 million to 17.3 million. Mortality will be affected strongly by the aging population; annual coronary heart disease deaths are projected to increase by 56% over the next 30 years, from 392,000 to 610,000. Coronary heart disease-related health care costs are projected to rise by 41% from $126.2 billion in 2010 to $177.5 billion in 2040 in the United States. It may be possible to offset the increase in disease burden through achievement of Healthy People 2010/2020 objectives or interventions that substantially reduce obesity, blood pressure, or cholesterol levels in the population.

Conclusions: Without considerable changes in risk factors or treatments, the aging of the US population will result in a sizeable increase in coronary heart disease incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs. Health care stakeholders need to plan for the future age-related health care demands of coronary heart disease.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The absolute coronary heart disease prevalence by decade of age, from 2010 – 2040
Figure 2
Figure 2
The absolute number of coronary heart disease deaths by decade of age, from 2010 – 2040.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The projected impact of changes in coronary heart disease risk factors on coronary heart disease incidence, from 2010–2040. Adherence to Healthy People 2010/2020 objectives include immediate improvements in blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, obesity, smoking, and diabetes. BMI increase and decrease refers to a +/− 10% trend from 2010–2040.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Trends in Aging - United States and Worldwide. MMWR. 2003;52:101–106. - PubMed
    1. U.S. Census Bureau. US Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin 2008. Vol. 2009. 2008.
    1. Heron M, Hoyert DL, Murphy SL, et al. Deaths: Final Data for 2006. National Vital Statistics Reports 2009. 57(14) - PubMed
    1. Weinstein MC, Coxson PG, Williams LW, et al. Forecasting coronary heart disease incidence, mortality, and cost: the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model. Am J Public Health. 1987;77(11):1417–26. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Goldman L. Cost-effectiveness perspectives in coronary heart disease. Am Heart J. 1990;119(3 Pt 2):733–9. discussion 739–40. - PubMed

Publication types