On the limits of the air pollution predictability: the case of the surface ozone at Athens, Greece

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the potential effects of increased urbanization in the Athens city, Greece on the intrinsic features of the temporal fluctuations of the surface ozone concentration (SOC).

Methods: The detrended fluctuation analysis was applied to the mean monthly values of SOC derived from ground-based observations collected at the centre of Athens basin during 1901-1940 and 1987-2007.

Results: Despite the present-day SOC doubling in respect to SOC historic levels, its fluctuations exhibit long-range power-law persistence, with similar features in both time periods. This contributes to an improved understanding of our predictive powers and enables better environmental management and more efficient decision-making processes.

Conclusions: The extensive photochemistry enhancement observed in the Athens basin from the beginning of the twentieth century until the beginning of the twenty-first century seems not to have affected the long memory of SOC correlations. The strength of this memory stems from its temporal evolution and provides the limits of the air pollution predictability at various time scales.