Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2011 Jul 26;105(3):460-5.
doi: 10.1038/bjc.2011.250. Epub 2011 Jul 19.

What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries

P D Sasieni  1 , J Shelton, N Ormiston-Smith, C S Thomson, P B Silcocks
Affiliations

What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries

P D Sasieni et al. Br J Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: The 'lifetime risk' of cancer is generally estimated by combining current incidence rates with current all-cause mortality ('current probability' method) rather than by describing the experience of a birth cohort. As individuals may get more than one type of cancer, what is generally estimated is the average (mean) number of cancers over a lifetime. This is not the same as the probability of getting cancer.

Methods: We describe a method for estimating lifetime risk that corrects for the inclusion of multiple primary cancers in the incidence rates routinely published by cancer registries. The new method applies cancer incidence rates to the estimated probability of being alive without a previous cancer. The new method is illustrated using data from the Scottish Cancer Registry and is compared with 'gold-standard' estimates that use (unpublished) data on first primaries.

Results: The effect of this correction is to make the estimated 'lifetime risk' smaller. The new estimates are extremely similar to those obtained using incidence based on first primaries. The usual 'current probability' method considerably overestimates the lifetime risk of all cancers combined, although the correction for any single cancer site is minimal.

Conclusion: Estimation of the lifetime risk of cancer should either be based on first primaries or should use the new method.

PubMed Disclaimer

References

    1. Cancer Research UK (2011) http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/survival/. Accessed March 2011
    1. Day NE (1987) Cumulative rates and cumulative risk. In Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Muir C, Waterhouse J, Mack T, Powell J, Whelan S (eds) vol. V, pp 787–789. International Agency for Research on Cancer. (IARC Scientific Publications No. 88): Lyon
    1. Esteve J, Benhamou E, Raymond L (1994) Descriptive Epidemiology. International Agency for Research on Cancer. (IARC Scientific Publications No. 128): Lyon, pp 67–68 - PubMed
    1. Fay MP, Pfieffer R, Cronin KA, Le C, Feuer EJ (2003) Age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer. Stat Med 22(11): 1837–1848 - PMC - PubMed
    1. Feuer EJ, Wun LM, Boring CC, Flanders WD, Timmel MJ, Tong T (1993) The lifetime risk of developing breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst 85: 892–897 - PubMed

Publication types