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. 2010 Jul 1;2(3):129-157.
doi: 10.1257/app.2.3.129.

Why Have College Completion Rates Declined? An Analysis of Changing Student Preparation and Collegiate Resources

John Bound  1 , Michael F Lovenheim, Sarah Turner
Affiliations

Why Have College Completion Rates Declined? An Analysis of Changing Student Preparation and Collegiate Resources

John Bound et al. Am Econ J Appl Econ. .

Abstract

Rising college enrollment over the last quarter century has not been met with a proportional increase in college completion. Comparing the high school classes of 1972 and 1992, we show declines in college completion rates have been most pronounced for men who first enroll in less selective public universities and community colleges. We decompose the decline into the components due to changes in preparedness of entering students and due to changes in collegiate characteristics, including type of institution and resources per student. While both factors play some role, the supply-side characteristics are most important in explaining changes in college completion. (JEL I23).

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Trends in the Ratio of BA Recipients to Those with Some College or More among 25-Year-Olds Source: Authors’ calculation from Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 3.0 (Machine-readable database http://usa.ipums.org/usa/). Following David A. Jaeger (1997) 74.5 percent of those who attended, but did not complete the thirteenth year of schooling are allocated to the “some college” category for 1970 and 1980 when educational attainment was reported in terms of completed years of schooling.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Collegiate Attainment by Precollegiate Achievement Source: Authors’ calculations as described in the text from the NLS72 and NELS:88 surveys. NLS72 calculations were made using the fifth follow-up weights included in the survey. Fourth follow-up weights were used for the NELS:88 survey calculations. Only those participating in these follow-ups are included in the regression.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Cumulative Math Test Percentile Distributions by Initial School Type and Gender Source: Authors’ calculations as described in the text from the NLS72 and NELS:88 surveys. NLS72 calculations were made using the fifth follow-up weights included in the survey. Fourth follow-up weights were used for the NELS:88 survey calculations. Only those participating in these follow-ups are included in the regression. School type samples refer to first institution attended.
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References

    1. Altonji Joseph G. The Demand for and Return to Education When Education Outcomes are Uncertain. Journal of Labor Economics. 1993;11(1):48–83.
    1. Barsky Robert, Bound John, Charles Kerwin Kofi, Lupton Joseph P. Accounting for the Black-White Wealth Gap: A Nonparametric Approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2002;97(459):663–673.
    1. Bound John, Lovenheim Michael, Turner Sarah. Understanding the Decrease in College Completion Rates and the Increased Time to the Baccalaureate Degree. Population Studies Center Research Report. 2007 07-626.
    1. Bound John, Turner Sarah. Cohort Crowding: How Resources Affect Collegiate Attainment. Journal of Public Economics. 2007;91(5–6):877–899.
    1. DiNardo John, Fortin Nicole M, Lemieux Thomas. Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973–1992: A Semi-Parametric Approach. Econometrica. 1996;64(5):1001–1044.

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