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. 2011 Jul;27(7):1415-22.
doi: 10.1590/s0102-311x2011000700016.

[Dynamic study of tuberculosis mortality in São Paulo State, Brazil: a Bayesian approach]

[Article in Portuguese]
James Dean Oliveira dos Santos Junior  1 , Basílio de Bragança Pereira
Affiliations
Free article

[Dynamic study of tuberculosis mortality in São Paulo State, Brazil: a Bayesian approach]

[Article in Portuguese]
James Dean Oliveira dos Santos Junior et al. Cad Saude Publica. 2011 Jul.
Free article

Abstract

This study used dynamic linear models to analyze the dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) mortality in São Paulo State, Brazil. The study confirms previous findings of a decline in TB mortality in State in the last decade, while pointing to an increase in deaths beginning in 2005. Analysis of the two most frequent underlying causes pointed to HIV/TB co-infection. Forecasts for the next two years were performed, providing little evidence to support a continuing downward trend in the number of TB-related deaths.

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