Cartographical analysis of African swine fever outbreaks in the territory of the Russian Federation and computer modeling of the basic reproduction ratio

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF), have been introduced into the Russian Federation from Transcaucasia countries, has spread widely across the territory of the southern region of Russia since 2008. In this work we present an analysis of the spatial and temporal spread of the disease, determine risk factors by means of GIS tools and model the dynamics of the epidemic process both within infected premises (farms) and at the between-farm level to estimate the basic reproduction ratio R(0). The analysis allowed us to make a conclusion about the anthropogenic nature of the risk factors for disease spread. The major significant risk factors identified were: density of the road network, density of domestic swine population and density of water bodies in the study area. The basic reproduction ratio was estimated to range from 2 to 3 at the between-farm level and from 8 to 11 within the infected farms. These initial studies of the ASF epidemic provide information on which to based control and prevention programs.