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. 2012;24(3):331-9.
doi: 10.1080/09540121.2011.608418. Epub 2011 Sep 7.

A quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sex among HIV-seropositive men

Gemechu B Gerbi  1 , Tsegaye Habtemariam, Berhanu Tameru, David Nganwa, Vinaida Robnett
Affiliations

A quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sex among HIV-seropositive men

Gemechu B Gerbi et al. AIDS Care. 2012.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sexual practices among HIV-seropositive men. A knowledgebase was developed by reviewing different published sources. The data were collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selected journals, and reports. The risk pathway scenario tree was developed based on a comprehensive review of published literature. The variables are organized into nine major parameter categories. Monte Carlo simulations for the quantitative risk assessment of HIV/AIDS transmission was executed with the software @Risk 4.0 (Palisade Corporation). Results show that the value for the likelihood of unprotected sex due to having less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and negative attitude toward condom use and safer sex ranged from 1.24 × 10(-5) to 8.47 × 10(-4) with the mean and standard deviation of 1.83 × 10(-4) and 8.63 × 10(-5), respectively. The likelihood of unprotected sex due to having greater anger-hostility, anxiety, less satisfied with aspects of life, and greater depressive symptoms ranged from 2.76 × 10(-9) to 5.34 × 10(-7) with the mean and standard deviation of 5.23 × 10(-8) and 3.58 × 10(-8), respectively. The findings suggest that HIV/AIDS research and intervention programs must be focused on behavior, and the broader setting within which individual risky behaviors occur.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Risk scenario pathway for the likelihood of unprotected sex
Figure 2
Figure 2
Tornado chart showing the likelihood of unprotected sex due to : 1) less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and beliefs, 2) emotional states and personality
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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