Cancer survivors: a booming population

Abstract

Background: In this first article of what is planned to be an annual series, we examine the history of cancer prevalence reporting and the role that these annual figures play in guiding the direction of cancer control research, and specifically the science of cancer survivorship. For this inaugural year, we focus on the confluence of the growing number of survivors and population aging, and the impact these combined trends will have on cancer survivorship in the future.

Methods: State or metro area-level cancer incidence and prevalence data were collected from 9 registries via the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The complete prevalence method was used to estimate prevalence for 2008 and the Prevalence, Incidence Approach Model method was used to project prevalence data through 2020, assuming flat cancer incidence and survival trends but dynamic U.S. population projections.

Results: As of January 2008, the number of cancer survivors is estimated at 11.9 million. Approximately 60% of cancer survivors are age 65 or older, and by the year 2020, it is estimated that 63% of cancer survivors will be age 65 or older.

Conclusions: Improved survival and population aging converge to generate a booming population of older adult cancer survivors, many of whom have multiple complex health conditions and unique survivorship needs. This demographic shift has important implications for future health care needs and costs of the U.S. population.

Impact: The findings provide information critical for guiding cancer prevention and control research and service provision.

Figure 1

Proportion of Tumors in Patients Age 65 and Older at Diagnosis (7)

Figure 2

Estimated Number of Cancer Survivors in the United States from 1971 to 2008 (23)

Figure 3

Estimated Number of Persons Alive in the U.S. Diagnosed with Cancer on January 1, 2008 by Time from Diagnosis and Gender (Invasive/1st Primary Cases Only, N = 11.9 M survivors) (23)

Figure 4

Estimated Number of Persons Alive in the U.S. Diagnosed with Cancer on January 1, 2008 by Current Age (Invasive/1st Primary Cases Only, N = 11.9 M survivors) (23)

Figure 5

Estimated Number of Persons with a History of Cancer from 1971 to 2008, by Age Group, Projected Through the Year 2020 (3,7)

Figure 6

Population Projections of Survivors Age 65 and Older by the Three Phases of Care: Initial (within one year of diagnosis date); Last year of life, and Continuing Phase (Between Initial and Last Year of Life). (3, 7)