Early and delayed fatality of stroke in Kolkata, India: results from a 7-year longitudinal population-based study

Abstract

There is no previously published well-designed study on long-term outcome of stroke from India. The present study has examined the case fatality rate and survival pattern in patients with stroke in a stratified, randomly selected sample from a large Indian metropolitan area. This prospective study was conducted over 7 years (March 2003 to February 2010) using a validated questionnaire administered by a field team and headed by a neurologist. A cross-sectional house-to-house survey was repeated twice yearly. A verbal autopsy was performed to assess cases of death. The Kaplan-Meier method was applied for survival analysis. A cohort of 763 stroke cases were followed up. The overall stroke fatality was approximately 59% at 5 years and 61% at 7 years. Early fatality was 33% within 7 days and 42% within 30 days. Men were at greater risk of death than women. Logistic regression analysis revealed male sex and diabetes to be important predictors of fatality. The majority of deaths were attributable to the index stroke (70%), followed by recurrent stroke (19%) and cardiovascular causes (7%). Beyond the first year, recurrent stroke was by far the most common cause of death. Median survival time exceeded the 84-month observation period when 30-day fatalities were excluded. Early stroke fatality is higher in this study compared with reports from developed countries, but long-term survival is similar. Beyond 1 year, the causes of stroke fatality are similar to that reported in other Asian populations. Access to acute stroke care and appropriate preventive strategy are urgently needed to reduce early stroke fatality in India.