Childhood risk factors predict cardiovascular disease, impaired fasting glucose plus type 2 diabetes mellitus, and high blood pressure 26 years later at a mean age of 38 years: the Princeton-lipid research clinics follow-up study

Abstract

The objective was to assess whether pediatric risk factors predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), impaired fasting glucose (IFG) + type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and high blood pressure (HBP) in young adulthood. We performed a prospective follow-up of 909 public-parochial suburban schoolchildren first studied at ages 6 to 18 years and 26 years later at a mean age of 38 years. Pediatric triglycerides (TGs), blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, and glucose above and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol below established pediatric cutoffs, along with race, cigarette smoking, family history of CVD, T2DM, and HBP, were assessed as determinants of young adult CVD, a composite variable including IFG + T2DM and HBP. By stepwise logistic regression, adult CVD (19 yes, 862 no) was associated with pediatric high TG (odds ratio [OR], 5.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-14.7). High TG in pediatric probands with young adult CVD was familial and was associated with early CVD in their high-TG parents. Adult IFG + T2DM (114 yes, 535 no) was associated with parental T2DM (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.38-3.6), high childhood glucose (OR, 4.43; 95% CI, 2-9.7), and childhood cigarette smoking (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.03-2.61). Adult HBP (133 yes, 475 no) was associated with pediatric high body mass index (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.7-4.3) and HBP (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.5-4.3). Pediatric risk factors are significantly, independently related to young adult CVD, IFG + T2DM, and HBP. Identification of pediatric risk factors for CVD, IFG + T2DM, and HBP facilitates initiation of primary prevention programs to reduce development of adult CVD, IFG + T2DM, and HBP.

FIGURE 1

Kaplan-Meier survival curve. In group of subjects with high pediatric triglyceride versus group with normal childhood triglyceride. The ratio of expected CVD-free time was estimated using SAS LIFEREG procedure.

FIGURE 2

High triglycerides in childhood and young adulthood in subjects who developed cardiovascular disease in young adulthood and those who did not.

FIGURE 3

High BMI in childhood and young adulthood in subjects who developed cardiovascular disease in young adulthood and those who did not.

FIGURE 4

Familial high triglycerides in child probands, their siblings and parents in 19 kindred where the probands had a CVD event before age 44.