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. 2011 Nov 22;105(11):1795-803.
doi: 10.1038/bjc.2011.430. Epub 2011 Oct 27.

Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030

M Mistry  1 , D M Parkin, A S Ahmad, P Sasieni
Affiliations

Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030

M Mistry et al. Br J Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: Projections of cancer incidence are important for planning health services and to provide a baseline for assessing the impact of public health interventions.

Methods: Rates estimated from smooth function age-period-cohort modelling of cancer incidence data from Great Britain 1975 to 2007 are extrapolated to 2030 and applied to UK population projections. Prostate and breast cancer projections take into account the effect of screening.

Results: Overall rates of cancer are projected to be stable over the next 20 years, but this masks individual changes. In both sexes, age-standardised rates of cancers of the stomach, larynx, bladder and leukaemia are projected to fall by ≥1% per year, whereas cancers of the lip, mouth and pharynx (ICD-10 C00-C14) and melanoma are projected to increase by ≥1% per year. The growing and aging populations will have a substantial impact: numbers of cancers in men and women are projected to increase by 55% (from 149,169 to 231,026) and 35% (from 148,716 to 200,929), respectively, between 2007 and 2030. The model used yields similar results to those of Nordpred, but is more flexible.

Conclusion: Without new initiatives for smoking and obesity reduction, the number of cancers in the United Kingdom will increase substantially reflecting the growing and aging populations.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends and projections of cancer incidence rates (all cancers excl NMSC) for males and females in Great Britain.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Observed and projected cancer incidence rates for various cancers. Rates are age standardised within each of the five age-bands.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Observed and projected cancer incidence rates for various cancers. Rates are age standardised within each of the five age-bands.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Projected change in age-standardised rates, crude rates and numbers of cases from 2007 to 2030 (as percentages of the 2007 value). (A) All cancer (by sex), (B) prostate cancer (males) and breast cancer (females).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Pie charts of the most common cancers in women and men in 1984, 2007 and predicted in 2030. The areas of the pies are proportional to the numbers of cases (scaled separately for men and women).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

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