A dynamic model of the reproductive process

Abstract

Summary A dynamic deterministic model of the reproductive process is presented. The model describes and analyses the effect of intermediate fertility variables on fertility. The intermediate fertility variables which are the inputs to the model, include the duration of post-partum amenorrhea, fecundability, incidence of spontaneous and induced abortion, contraceptive use and effectiveness, the distribution of age at first marriage and the age specific risks of marital disruption and remarriage. To test the validity of this model, it is fitted to data obtained from reproductive histories of 512 marriages occurring during the first half of the eighteenth century in Canada.