Further developments in indirect mortality estimation

Abstract

Summary A variety of indirect estimators of mortality; survival of children by marriage duration of mother, survival of first spouse by marriage duration and by age, maternal orphanhood, and survival of siblings, are investigated by the use of a wide range of model fertility and mortality situations. Survival probabilities are then related by regression analysis to the proportions with a particular characteristic, to yield an equation which can then be used to estimate the survival probability in a population. Maternal orphanhood and survival of first spouse by age have already shown themselves to be useful, and the new developments are only simplifications of the existing methodology. Survival of first spouse by duration of marriage, and survival of siblings are, however, new methods which have yet to be justified by field experience. In conclusion, the features common to all indirect mortality estimation procedures are outlined, and the direction future developments may take in response to gradually improving data quality is suggested.