Spatio-temporal epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Nigeria, 2006-2008

Abstract

From 2006 to 2008, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI) virus of the H5N1 subtype occurred among poultry in Nigeria. We described the spatio-temporal patterns of the HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Nigeria. Data of suspected and laboratory confirmed outbreaks maintained at the National Veterinary Research Institute Vom was analyzed using descriptive and exploratory analyses, GIS mapping, global and local spatial statistical analyses using the Cuzick-Edwards' (C-E) test and SaTScan Space-Time Scan Statistic. A total of 1654 suspected outbreaks were reported from 32 of the 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), 299 were confirmed HPAI H5N1 positive from 27 states and FCT. The outbreaks occurred as three distinct epidemic waves with peak periods of January-March mainly in the North-West, North-Central and North-East regions during 2006 and 2007 and July-September in the South-West and South-South regions in 2007. Three spatio-temporal clusters were identified extending across States and international borders, consistent with disease transmission occurring through local and long-distance spread. This calls for enhanced strategies by the states and regional authorities to improve surveillance, prevention and control measures at the states, national and international levels.