Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2011;6(11):e26188.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0026188. Epub 2011 Nov 16.

Impact of Scottish smoke-free legislation on smoking quit attempts and prevalence

Daniel F Mackay  1 , Sally Haw, Jill P Pell
Affiliations

Impact of Scottish smoke-free legislation on smoking quit attempts and prevalence

Daniel F Mackay et al. PLoS One. 2011.

Abstract

Objectives: In Scotland, legislation was implemented in March 2006 prohibiting smoking in all wholly or partially enclosed public spaces. We investigated the impact on attempts to quit smoking and smoking prevalence.

Methods: We performed time series models using Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) on monthly data on the gross ingredient cost of all nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) prescribed in Scotland in 2003-2009, and quarterly data on self-reported smoking prevalence between January 1999 and September 2010 from the Scottish Household Survey.

Results: NRT prescription costs were significantly higher than expected over the three months prior to implementation of the legislation. Prescription costs peaked at £1.3 million in March 2006; £292,005.9 (95% CI £260,402.3, £323,609, p<0.001) higher than the monthly norm. Following implementation of the legislation, costs fell exponentially by around 26% per month (95% CI 17%, 35%, p<0.001). Twelve months following implementation, the costs were not significantly different to monthly norms. Smoking prevalence fell by 8.0% overall, from 31.3% in January 1999 to 23.7% in July-September 2010. In the quarter prior to implementation of the legislation, smoking prevalence fell by 1.7% (95% CI 2.4%, 1.0%, p<0.001) more than expected from the underlying trend.

Conclusions: Quit attempts increased in the three months leading up to Scotland's smoke-free legislation, resulting in a fall in smoking prevalence. However, neither has been sustained suggesting the need for additional tobacco control measures and ongoing support.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Median and IQR monthly gross ingredient costs of nicotine replacement therapy prescribed in Scotland (2003–2009).
Figure 2
Figure 2. Observed and expected monthly gross ingredient costs of nicotine replacement therapy prescribed in Scotland (2003–2009).
Figure 3
Figure 3. Observed and predicted monthly gross ingredient costs of nicotine replacement therapy prescribed in Scotland (2003–2009).
Figure 4
Figure 4. Observed and predicted quarterly smoking prevalence in Scotland (January 1999–September 2010).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Haw SJ, Gruer L, Amos A, Currie C, Fischbacher C, Fong GW, et al. Legislation on smoking in enclosed public places in Scotland: How will we evaluate the impact? J Public Health. 2006;28(1):24–30. - PubMed
    1. Semple S, MacCalman L, Naji AA, Dempsey S, Hilton S, et al. Bar worker's exposure to second-hand smoke: the effect of the Scottish smoke-free legislation on occupational exposure. Ann Occup Hyg. 2007;51(7):571–80. - PubMed
    1. Semple S, Creely KS, Naji A, Miller BG, Ayres JG. Secondhand smoke levels in Scottish pubs: the effect of smoke-free legislation. Tob Control. 2007;16(2):127–32. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Haw SJ, Gruer L. Changes in exposure of adult non-smokers to secondhand smoke after implementation of smoke-free legislation in Scotland: A national cross-sectional survey. BMJ. 2007;335(7619):549. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Akhtar PC, Currie DB, Currie CE, Haw SJ. Changes to child exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (CHETS) study after implementation of smoke-free legislation in Scotland: national cross-sectional survey. BMJ. 2007;335(7619):545. - PMC - PubMed

Publication types

MeSH terms