Slope estimation for informatively right censored longitudinal data modelling the number of observations using geometric and Poisson distributions: application to renal transplant cohort

Abstract

Analysis of longitudinal data is often complicated by the presence of informative right censoring. This type of censoring should be accounted for in the analysis so that valid slope estimates are attained. In this study, we developed a new likelihood-based approach wherein the likelihood function is integrated over random effects to obtain a marginal likelihood function. Maximum likelihood estimates for the population slope were acquired by direct maximisation of the marginal likelihood function and empirical Bayes estimates for the individual slopes were generated using Gaussian quadrature. The performance of the model was assessed using the geometric and Poisson distributions to model the number of observations for every individual subject. Our model generated valid estimates for the slopes under both distributions with minimal bias and mean squared errors. Our sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model to assumptions pertaining to the underlying distribution and demonstrated its insensitivity to normality assumptions. Moreover, superiority of the model in terms of accuracy of slope estimates was consistently shown across the different levels of censoring in comparison to the naïve and bootstrap approaches. This model was illustrated using the cohort of renal transplant patients and estimates of the slopes that are adjusted for informative right censoring were acquired.

Keywords: Poisson distributions; empirical Bayes estimates; geometric distribution; informative right censoring; longitudinal data; marginal likelihood function; renal transplant; slope estimation.