A simplified donor risk index for predicting outcome after deceased donor kidney transplantation

Abstract

Background: We sought to determine the deceased donor factors associated with outcome after kidney transplantation and to develop a clinically applicable Kidney Donor Risk Index.

Methods: Data from the UK Transplant Registry on 7620 adult recipients of adult deceased donor kidney transplants between 2000 and 2007 inclusive were analyzed. Donor factors potentially influencing transplant outcome were investigated using Cox regression, adjusting for significant recipient and transplant factors. A United Kingdom Kidney Donor Risk Index was derived from the model and validated.

Results: Donor age was the most significant factor predicting poor transplant outcome (hazard ratio for 18-39 and 60+ years relative to 40-59 years was 0.78 and 1.49, respectively, P<0.001). A history of donor hypertension was also associated with increased risk (hazard ratio 1.30, P=0.001), and increased donor body weight, longer hospital stay before death, and use of adrenaline were also significantly associated with poorer outcomes up to 3 years posttransplant. Other donor factors including donation after circulatory death, history of cardiothoracic disease, diabetes history, and terminal creatinine were not significant. A donor risk index based on the five significant donor factors was derived and confirmed to be prognostic of outcome in a validation cohort (concordance statistic 0.62). An index developed in the United States by Rao et al., Transplantation 2009; 88: 231-236, included 15 factors and gave a concordance statistic of 0.63 in the UK context, suggesting that our much simpler model has equivalent predictive ability.

Conclusions: A Kidney Donor Risk Index based on five donor variables provides a clinically useful tool that may help with organ allocation and informed consent.