Fertility intentions and subsequent behavior: a longitudinal study in rural India

Abstract

This report compares fertility and family planning intentions of rural Indian women in 1975 with actual outcomes in 1987. Ninety-four of 103 respondents who had fewer children than they wanted in 1975 and had stated definite intentions with respect to future fertility and contraceptive use were reinterviewed in 1987. Overall, women had fewer children than desired and stopped childbearing when they reached or closely approximated their ideal number of sons. Since sons were clearly the determinant of "reproductive success," it is argued that only a significant change in the status of rural women can bring about widespread compliance with the official family planning program's two-child norm.

PIP: The question of how accurately family size desires, as stated by people responding to fertility surveys, predict subsequent family planning (FP) and fertility behavior is studied for a rural area in India with regard to numbers of children desired, sex preferences, and contraceptive choices in 1975 and actual outcome in 1987. Total village population was 2096, 997 males (48%) and 1099 females (52%) in 1975. In 1987, there were 1286 males and 1278 females for a total of 2564. By 1987, the % of household heads who were primarily farmers had declined. Significant increases took place in educational status for both men and women. The village is 14 km. from the district capital and in 1975 it could be reached only by crossing a river on foot or in a boat. By 1987, communications had improved markedly. A bridge was built. Buses, rickshaws, cars, and motorcycles traveled the village road. In 1975, Indian couples were vigorously encouraged to limit childbearing. Virtually all village women were in favor of FP, especially sterilization. Nevertheless, the mean parity of sterilized women was high--5.2 live births. In 1975, the child spacing idea was not very popular. In 1987, a strong FP program also existed. Data on cultural factors, contraceptive knowledge, practices and attitudes were gathered from 349 currently married women aged 15-49, or 98.6% of all village women eligible in 1975. In 1975-76, 103 women had not yet gone above the number of children they wanted; had stated definite intentions regarding future fertility and contraceptive use, and were not sterilized. 94 were reinterviewed in 1987. An average of 3 children was preferred for 1975 respondents--2 boys and 1 girl. The average desired number of children varied very little across age categories, from 3.3 children in the 15-24 age group to 3.6 children in the 35-49 age group. Most older women already had families larger that their ideal. Status of sterilization use and intentions in 1975 is shown in tabular forms. The average age of the women who were reinterviewed in 1987 was 23 years in 1975-76 and 35 in 1987. Fertility in the 15-24 age group was markedly lower than the 2 older groups. Women age 27-36 in 1987 had borne slightly more children than desired, but they had fewer surviving children than their ideal. overall, women stopped childbearing when they reached their desired number of sons. Only a significant change in women's status will bring about widespread compliance with the official 2-child norm.