Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s

Abstract

From 2006 to 2010, deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996-2005) whereas agricultural production reached an all-time high. This study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001 to 2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared pasture areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006 to 2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10 to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels whereas deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that antideforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of direct leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso during the late 2000s, although indirect land-use changes and leakage to more distant regions are possible. This study provides evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers, provided that land is available and policies promote the efficient use of already-cleared lands (intensification) while restricting deforestation. It remains uncertain whether government- and industry-led policies can contain deforestation if future market conditions favor another boom in agricultural expansion.

Fig. 1.

Deforestation in Mato Grosso (11), tons of soy produced (19), and number of heads of cattle produced (16) from 2001 to 2010. Production was normalized to 2001. Production increases correspond to an area increase of 3 million ha for cropland (soy) and 10 million ha for pasture (assuming one head of cattle per ha).

Fig. 2.

(A and B, enlargements of the area boxed in red) Postdeforestation land uses in a subset of the study region from 2001 to 2005 (A) and 2006 to 2010 (B). Deforestation areas >25 ha were derived from the PRODES dataset (11), and land use from analysis of the MODIS EVI time series. The Brazilian Amazon forest biome is shaded in green (Lower Right).

Fig. 3.

Deforestation in Mato Grosso from 2001 to 2010. Postdeforestation land uses for large (>25 ha) clearings were derived from the PRODES dataset (11) and the MODIS EVI time series. Profitability was calculated from state-level data on price received for soy (38) and the cost of production (25), in Brazilian Reais (BRL). Soy profitability was correlated with cropland deforestation until 2007 (R² = 0.64, n = 7).

Fig. 4.

Trends in soy expansion during the study period. (A) Attribution of net changes in soy production in the forested region of Mato Grosso to yield, expansion into forest, and expansion into previously cleared (primarily pasture) land. From 2001 to 2005, increases in production were due entirely to expansion into forest (26%) and pasture (74%). From 2005 to 2009, increases in yield accounted for 22% of production increases, and most (91%) cropland expansion occurred into pasture. (B) Of the pasture converted to soy from 2005 to 2009, about two-thirds represented old clearings deforested before 2000. These results are based on IBGE municipal agricultural data (19) and PRODES deforestation data (11), spatially allocated using the MODIS time series.