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. 2012 Mar;23(2):189-93.
doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e318245c61c.

Lights out: impact of the August 2003 power outage on mortality in New York, NY

G Brooke Anderson  1 , Michelle L Bell
Affiliations

Lights out: impact of the August 2003 power outage on mortality in New York, NY

G Brooke Anderson et al. Epidemiology. 2012 Mar.

Abstract

Background: Little is known about how power outages affect health. We investigated mortality effects of the largest US blackout to date, 14-15 August 2003 in New York, NY.

Methods: We estimated mortality risk in New York, NY, using a generalized linear model with data from 1987-2005. We incorporated possible confounders, including weather and long-term and seasonal mortality trends.

Results: During the blackout, mortality increased for accidental deaths (122% [95% confidence interval = 28%-287%]) and nonaccidental (ie, disease-related) deaths (25% [12%-41%]), resulting in approximately 90 excess deaths. Increased mortality was not from deaths being advanced by a few days; rather, mortality risk remained slightly elevated through August 2003.

Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first analysis of power outages and nonaccidental mortality. Understanding the impact of power outages on human health is relevant, given that increased energy demand and climate change are likely to put added strain on power grids.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Daily mortality counts during August 2003 (in red) compared with average August mortality rates for (A) all-cause mortality, (B) non-accidental mortality, and (C) accidental mortality. Shown for comparison are the mean (black line) and interquartile range (hatched area) of a seven-day moving average of mortality in August of the two proceeding (2001,2002) and two following years (2004,2005). Yellow highlights blackout dates.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Concentrations of pollutants immediately following the blackout for (A) O3; (B) NO2; (C) SO2; (D) CO; and (E) PM10. Gray boxes show boxplots of hourly distributions for August of the two proceeding (2001, 2002) and two following (2004, 2005) years. The color of each line corresponds to the monitor of the same color shown on the accompanying map. Two extreme outliers are removed in figure (C); these did not occur during the power outage.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Concentrations of pollutants immediately following the blackout for (A) O3; (B) NO2; (C) SO2; (D) CO; and (E) PM10. Gray boxes show boxplots of hourly distributions for August of the two proceeding (2001, 2002) and two following (2004, 2005) years. The color of each line corresponds to the monitor of the same color shown on the accompanying map. Two extreme outliers are removed in figure (C); these did not occur during the power outage.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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