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. 2012 May;96(5):752-6.
doi: 10.1136/bjophthalmol-2011-301109. Epub 2012 Feb 13.

The estimated prevalence and incidence of late stage age related macular degeneration in the UK

Christopher G Owen  1 , Zakariya Jarrar, Richard Wormald, Derek G Cook, Astrid E Fletcher, Alicja R Rudnicka
Affiliations

The estimated prevalence and incidence of late stage age related macular degeneration in the UK

Christopher G Owen et al. Br J Ophthalmol. 2012 May.

Abstract

Background: UK estimates of age related macular degeneration (AMD) occurrence vary.

Aims: To estimate prevalence, number and incidence of AMD by type in the UK population aged ≥50 years.

Methods: Age-specific prevalence rates of AMD obtained from a Bayesian meta-analysis of AMD prevalence were applied to UK 2007-2009 population data. Incidence was estimated from modelled age-specific prevalence.

Results: Overall prevalence of late AMD was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 3.3%), equivalent to 513 000 cases (95% CrI 363 000 to 699 000); estimated to increase to 679 000 cases by 2020. Prevalences were 4.8% aged ≥65 years, 12.2% aged ≥80 years. Geographical atrophy (GA) prevalence rates were 1.3% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.9%), 2.6% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.7%) and 6.7% (95% CrI 4.6% to 9.6%); neovascular AMD (NVAMD) 1.2% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.7%), 2.5% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.4%) and 6.3% (95% CrI 4.5% to 8.6%), respectively. The estimated number of prevalent cases of late AMD were 60% higher in women versus men (314 000 cases in women, 192 000 men). Annual incidence of late AMD, GA and NVAMD per 1000 women was 4.1 (95% CrI 2.4% to 6.8%), 2.4 (95% CrI 1.5% to 3.9%) and 2.3 (95% CrI 1.4% to 4.0%); in men 2.6 (95% CrI 1.5% to 4.4%), 1.7 (95% CrI 1.0% to 2.8%) and 1.4 (95% CrI 0.8% to 2.4%), respectively. 71 000 new cases of late AMD were estimated per year.

Conclusions: These estimates will guide health and social service provision for those with late AMD and enable estimation of the cost of introducing new treatments.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Number of prevalent cases (in thousands) of late age related macular degeneration (AMD), geographical atrophy (GA) and neovascular AMD (NVAMD) in men (open blue squares) and women (open red) by 1-year age groups. The dashed blue and red lines are the 95% credible intervals for men and women, respectively.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projected number of prevalent cases (in thousands) of late age related macular degeneration (AMD) in men (blue line) and women (red line) and combined (black line) from 2010 to 2020.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Graphs on the left had side represent the annual incidence (number per 1000) of late age related macular degeneration (AMD), geographical atrophy (GA) and neovascular AMD (NVAMD) in men (open blue squares) and women (open red circles). The dashed blue and red lines are the 95% credible intervals for men and women, respectively. Graphs on the right hand side represent number of new cases per year in men (blue line) and women (red line) as applied to the UK population.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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