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. 2012 Feb 21:12:17.
doi: 10.1186/1471-2288-12-17.

Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025

Bircan Erbas  1 , Shahid Ullah, Rob J Hyndman, Michelle Scollo, Michael Abramson
Affiliations

Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025

Bircan Erbas et al. BMC Med Res Methodol. .

Abstract

Background: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia, and there are marked differences in mortality trends between men and women. In this study, we have sought to model and forecast age related changes in COPD mortality over time for men and women separately over the period 2006-2025.

Methods: Annual COPD death rates in Australia from 1922 to 2005 for age groups (50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+) were used. Functional time series models of age-specific COPD mortality rates for men and women were used, and forecasts of mortality rates were modelled separately for men and women.

Results: Functional time series models with four basis functions were fitted to each population separately. Twenty-year forecasts were computed, and indicated an overall decline. This decline may be slower for women than for men. By age, we expect similar rates of decline in men over time. In contrast, for women, forecasts for the age group 75-79 years suggest less of a decline over time compared to younger age groups.

Conclusions: By using a new method to predict age-specific trends in COPD mortality over time, this study provides important insights into at-risk age groups for men and women separately, which has implications for policy and program development.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-specific COPD mortality rates in Australia for men (top) and women (bottom) separately, 1922-2005.
Figure 2
Figure 2
20 year forecasts of the first two coefficients using state space exponential smoothing models with additive errors and a damped trend for (a) men and (b) women. The shaded region represents 80% prediction intervals.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Forecasts of age-specific COPD mortality rates for the years 2006-2025, for men (top panel) and women (bottom panel).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Forecasts of age-specific COPD mortality rates for the years 2006-2025 excluding data before 1960, for men (top panel) and women (bottom panel).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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