Radiation-epidemiological studies of thyroid cancer incidence in Russia after the Chernobyl accident (estimation of radiation risks, 1991-2008 follow-up period)

Abstract

This study presents an analysis of the thyroid cancer incidence in the population of the most contaminated territories of Bryansk, Kaluga, Oryol and Tula oblasts affected by the Chernobyl accident. The follow-up period is 1991-2008, and the cohort size is 309 130 people. For that period 978 thyroid cancer cases were detected. The excess relative risk per 1 Gy (ERR/Gy) is found to be statistically significant for children and adolescents (0-17 y of age) at the time of the Chernobyl accident (ERR/Gy=3.22; 95 % confidence interval (1.56; 5.81). In boys, the ERR/Gy was higher than in girls -6.54 and 2.24, respectively. A statistically significant decrease in ERR/Gy with time since exposure, by a factor of 0.37 per 10 y, was observed for the whole cohort and for boys separately, but not for girls. No radiation risks of a thyroid cancer among people of 18 y of age at exposure and older were found.