A qualitative risk assessment methodology for scientific expert panels

Abstract

Risk assessment can be either quantitative, i.e. providing a numeric estimate of the probability of risk and the magnitude of the consequences, or qualitative, using a descriptive approach. The French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), formerly the French Food Safety Agency (AFSSA), bases its assessments on the opinions of scientific panels, such as the ANSES Animal Health Scientific Panel (AH-SP). Owing to the lack of relevant data and the very short period of time usually allowed to assess animal health risks on particular topics, this panel has been using a qualitative risk method for evaluating animal health risks or crises for the past few years. Some experts have drawn attention to the limitations of this method, such as the need to extend the range of adjectives used for the lower probabilities and to develop a way to assess consequences. The aim of this paper is to describe the improved method now established by the AH-SP, taking into account the limitations of the first version. The authors describe a new set of levels for probabilities, as well as the items considered when addressing either animal or human health consequences.