Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea, 2012

Abstract

Purpose: To estimate the current cancer burden in Korea, cancer incidence and mortality rates were projected for the year 2012.

Materials and methods: The cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2009 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and the cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2010 were obtained from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2012 was projected by fitting a linear regression model on observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was applied, except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend significantly changed.

Results: A total of 234,727 new cancer cases and 73,313 cancer deaths are projected to occur in Korea in 2012. For all sites combined, the crude incidence rates are projected to be 465.6 and 459.7, and the age-standardized incidences to be 345.1 and 300.9 per 100,000 respectively for males and females.

Conclusion: Cancer has become an important public health concern in Korea, and as the Korean population ages, the cancer burden will continue to increase.

Keywords: 2012; Incidence; Korea; Mortality; Neoplasms; Prediction.

Fig. 1

The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by gender in 2012. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.

Fig. 2

Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2012 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

Fig. 3

Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2012 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.