[2 scenarios on extension of life. Various social consequences of a higher life expectancy]

Abstract

This article explores the potential consequences of an extra life extension till 2010. For this purpose the method of scenario analysis is used. Life extension is defined as an extra increase in life expectancy at birth (compared to the 'normal' demographic forecast). The optimistic scenario is based on an equal delay of both death and the prevalence of disease and disability. In the pessimistic scenario, only death is delayed, which brings more morbidity. It is stressed that the development of morbidity considerably influences the social consequences of extra life extension, such as the use older people make of the (health) care services system, and the socio-economic and the socio-cultural position of the elderly. In the optimistic scenario the pressure on care services is more or less the same as it would be according to the normal demographic forecast, although the patients/clients are older. Due to the extra increase in life expectancy the costs of social security will be much higher. The percentage of people incapable of work, the age of retirement, the position of the elderly employee in the labour force and the norms and values concerning old age differ in both scenarios.