Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2012 Feb;37(2):142-6.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-7347.2012.02.005.

[Autoregressive integrated moving average model in food poisoning prediction in Hunan Province]

[Article in Chinese]
Ling Chen  1 , Huilan Xu
Affiliations

[Autoregressive integrated moving average model in food poisoning prediction in Hunan Province]

[Article in Chinese]
Ling Chen et al. Zhong Nan Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban. 2012 Feb.

Abstract

Objective: To determine the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in food poisoning prediction in Hunan Province, and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of food poisoning.

Methods: We collected the number of food poisoning from January 2003 to December 2009 in Hunan Province for ARIMA model fitting, and used food poisoning data of 2010 to verify the effect of model prediction. We predicted the number of food poisoning in 2011.

Results: ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 better fit the trends of the poisoning number in previous time periods and series, with prediction fitting error of 9.59%. The number of food poisoning in Hunan Province in 2011 was predicted to be 834.

Conclusion: ARIMA model can better fit the number of food poisoning in the short term trends and series. If used for long-term forecasts.

PubMed Disclaimer

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources