Development and validation of a predictive model for death in acquired severe ADAMTS13 deficiency-associated idiopathic thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura: the French TMA Reference Center experience

Abstract

Background: Acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura is still associated with a 10-20% death rate. It has still not been possible to clearly identify early prognostic factors of death. This study involved thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura patients with acquired severe (<10% of normal activity) ADAMTS13 deficiency and aimed to identify prognostic factors associated with 30-day death.

Design and methods: The study involved a prospective cohort of patients and was carried out between October 2000 and August 2010. A validation cohort of patients was set up from September 2010 to August 2011. Altogether, 281 (analysis cohort) and 66 (validation cohort) consecutive adult thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura patients with acquired severe ADAMTS13 deficiency were enrolled. The study evaluated 30-day mortality after treatment initiation according to characteristics at inclusion.

Results: Non-survivors (11%) were older (P=10(-6)) and more frequently presented arterial hypertension (P=5.10(-4)) and ischemic heart disease (P=0.013). Prognosis was increasingly poor with age (P=0.004). On presentation, cerebral manifestations were more frequent in non-survivors (P=0.018) and serum creatinine level was higher (P=0.008). The most significant independent variables determining death were age, severe cerebral involvement and LDH level 10 N or over. A 3-level risk score for early death was defined and confirmed in the validation cohort using these variables, with higher values corresponding to increased risk of early death.

Conclusions: A risk score for early death was defined in patients with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura and validated on an independent cohort. This score should help to stratify early treatment and identify patients with a worse prognosis.

Figure 1.

ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. The AUC (area under the curve) was 0.77, showing that the score had discriminating ability (P<0.0001). The present score (full line) had better discriminating ability than the Wyllie score (broken line) (deLong test, P<0.0035).