Dynamic changes in MELD score not only predict survival on the waiting list but also overall survival after liver transplantation

Abstract

The predictive value of MELD score for post-transplant survival has been under constant debate since its implementation in 2001. Aim of this study was to assess the impact of alterations in MELD score throughout waiting time (WT) on post-transplant survival. A single-centre retrospective analysis of 1125 consecutive patients listed for liver transplantation between 1997 and 2009 was performed. The impact of MELD score and dynamic changes in MELD score (DeltaMELD), as well as age, sex, year of listing and WT were evaluated on waiting list mortality and post-transplant survival. In this cohort, 539 (60%) patients were transplanted, 223 (25%) died on list and 142 (15%) were removed from the waiting list during WT. One-, three- and five-year survival after liver transplantation were 83%, 78% and 76% respectively. DeltaMELD as a continuous variable proved to be the only significant risk factor for overall survival after liver transplantation (hazard ratio (HR): 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.1, P = 0.013). The highest risk of post-transplant death could be defined for patients with a DeltaMELD > 10 (HR: 4.87, 95% CI 2.09-11.35, P < 0.0001). In addition, DeltaMELD as well as MELD at listing showed a significant impact on waiting list mortality. DeltaMELD may provide an easy evaluation tool to identify patients on the liver transplant waiting list with a high mortality risk after transplantation in the current setting. Temporarily withholding and re-evaluating these patients might improve overall outcome after liver transplantation.